By Freddy Wills | March 15, 2010 The first round of the March Madness tournament usually has a few upsets and if you are filling out your bracket you want to concentrate on which teams have a chance at the upset. Traditionally there is always a 12 seed that takes down a 5 seed and a couple of 11’s that take down a 6 and even every once in a while there are some shockers with 14’s taking down 3’s. In face here is a look at what some of the ATS records are for seeds over the last 5 years. 1 vs. 16 We all know the story here no #16 team has ever upset a #1 seed. However, picking these games against the spread is the same as a coin flip. Over the last 5 years the #1 seed is 9-9-1 ATS. 2 vs. 15 Again there has not been a #15 seed to upset a #2 in the last 5 years here, and again it’s like flipping a coin as the #2 seed is just 10-10 ATS. 3 vs. 14 The 14 seed has won twice in the last 5 years. Bucknell upset Kansas 64-63 in 2005 and Northwestern St. upset Iowa the very next year. The #3 seed is actually 11-9 ATS, but still not winning ATS in convincing fashion. 4 vs. 13 Six #13 seeds have won in the last five years including Akron over Gonzaga, and Cleveland State over Wake Forest last year. #4 seed is 9-11 ATS in the last five years against the #13 seed. 5 vs. 12 As mentioned the #12 seed beats the #5 a lot at least once per year and for the last 5 years the #12 seed has actually won outright 11 of 20 times. The smart thing is if you see a short line or a possible small favorite for the 12 seed, because that usually means they are the better team, but the spread is slightly off because the perception is that as a #12 team they are the worse of the two teams. That’s not always true, and the #12 seed is 6-2 ATS in the last two years and 12-8 ATS over the last 5. 6 vs. 11 The last few seed match ups we have seen the underdog cover more and more, but this time the #11 seed has only won 7 times in the last 5 years, and they covered 50% of the time making Vegas extremely sharp when it comes to setting the number for these teams. 7 vs. 10 The 10 seed had a lot of success last year winning 3 of the 4 games. USC beat Boston College, Michigan took down Clemson, and Maryland beat California. However, the #10 seed had only won 5 times in the previous four years and are 8-12 ATS overall. If you are picking an underdog here take them on the money line because whoever has won the game in the last 5 years has also covered ATS. 8 vs. 9 Probably the most challenging match up to pick would be this one, but the #9 seed has won 12 of 20 over the last 5 years. Last year Siena and Texas A&M got it done and over the last 5 years the #9 seed is 12-7-1 ATS. What to take away from this? * Select at least one #12 seed straight up and ATS. * Select the #12 seed that is a small favorite or small under dog. * Take the #10 seed you are picking on the money line, if they cover they will also win the game. * Stay away from the higher games, 1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3vs. 14, and 4 vs. 13, they are a combined 39-39-1 ATS. You are better off flipping a coin and getting lucky than picking these games. Vegas is extremely sharp and they want to be .500 on these games so they are guaranteed to take home the money! My advice is to stay away. * Take the #9 seed that is a favorite. This is the same strategy as the #12 seed. The public will generally be on the lower seed, and if you see a favorite with the #9 seed they usually will cover and win as the #9 seed is 12-7-1 ATS in the last 5 years. Early upset leans: Uath State (12) over Texas A&M (5), Cornell (12) over Temple, Louisville (9) over California (8), Northern Iowa (9) over UNLV (8).
 

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