Rob Vinciletti: NBA Round 2 Historical analysis and series previews

In this piece we will examine the NBA Round 2 Series using Historical data and take a look at some of the statistical results from this season as we break down round 2. HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Playing Game 1 @ H: Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team playing Game 1 at home have the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record. Game 1 record, NBA only, all rounds: 311-112 (.735) Game 1 record, NBA only, Quarterfinals round: 134-42 (.761) Boston, Miami, Oklahoma City, San Antonio In the 2011-12 NBA regular season, the Boston Celtics finished four games in front of the Philadelphia 76ers. From 1947 through the 2012 NBA 1st round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by four regular-season games, they have posted a 22-8 good for a 73% win percentage. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Philadelphia has a 19-24 series record, a 9-10 Quarterfinals-round series record, and a 22-21 Game 1 record, while Boston has a 61-21 series record, an 18-7 Quarterfinals-round record, and a 56-26 Game 1 record. This Series is the 11th best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics; Boston won six of the first ten meetings. This season the Sixers have taken two of the 3 meetings between the two teams. However it will be very difficult here for the 8th seeded Team to win a second round with no home court against a veteran team like the Celtics. This should be a long series and may go the distance. In the end though its the Celtics. The Miami Heat also finished 4 game in front of their second round opponent the Indiana Pacers as they also fall under the 22-8 73% Win percentage scenario in this series. Indiana has a 10-10 series record, a 6-1 Quarterfinals-round series record, and a 10-10 Game 1 record, while Miami has a 12-8 series record, a 4-2 Quarterfinals-round record, and a 10-10 Game 1 record. This season Miami has won 3 of the 4 meetings between the clubs, winning the first 3 matchups before Indiana salvages the final game. The Heat have beaten the Pacers 5 of 6 times down in Miami and have taken 9 of the last 11 overall in the series. Miami appears to be on a mission and their finals loss last season to Dallas should only further their motivation and give them more resolve having gone through the experience. Look for Miami to win this series in no more than 6 games. In the Western Conference Quarter finals the Oklahoma City Thunder finished six games ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers. When NBA teams led their opponents by 6 games, they have posted a 17-4 series record in those series against those opponents. Good for 81%. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Los Angeles Lakers have a 68-29 series record, a 25-8 Quarterfinals-round series record, and a 64-33 Game 1 record, while Oklahoma City has a 3-2 series record, a 1-0 Quarterfinals-round record, and a 2-3 Game 1 record. The Lakers defeated the Thunder in the 2010 NBA Preliminary round. However these teams are going in different directions. The Lakers are trying to keep their winning window open, while the Thunder are much more seasoned and were the favorites to make the Finals coming out of the West until San Antonio when on the big run to secure the 1 seed. This season the Thunder took 2 of the 3 meetings and have revenge for the last meeting which was one by the Lakers. Los Angeles should remain competitive in this series. However teams like OKC coming off a sweep that are playing teams off a 7 games series have a decided advantage and the way this series sets up, the Lakers are not going to get much recovery time playing every other day, as opposed tot he first round where some of the games allowed 2 days rest. This could spell trouble later in the series. In the end I look for the Thunder to win the series. In the other Western Conference Quarter final series the San Antonio Spurs finished ten games ahead of the Los Angeles Clippers by ten regular-season games, these teams are 17-3 in the series against their opponents. The Los Angeles Clippers have a 2-1 NBA Playoff series record, a 0-1 Quarterfinals-round series record, and a 2-1 Game 1 record, while San Antonio has a 26-18 series record, a 10-10 Quarterfinals-round record, and a 24-20 Game 1 record. This is the first meeting between these two teams in a best of 7 series. In this years games the #1 seeded Spurs won two of the 3 games played, losing the last one they played at home and setting up a home loss revenge scenario for game one. The Spurs will likely dispatch the Clippers in 4-5 games as teams who swept their opponents in round one have an excellent all time record vs teams who went 7 games in their last series. The Spurs are on a 23-1 runs when the Big three Duncan, Parker and Ginobli all play. The Clippers had a nice season and did well to get out of the first round. However this is too tough a task. The Spurs advance. In closing we hope you enjoy the this preview and all the NBA Playoff games this post season, and may all your selections be winning ones. Rob is enjoying another Banner season in the NBA and has cashed at a high rate with his cutting edge NBA Playoff systems, direct from the Historical database, as he continues to bring you Material you wont see any where else. Rob is consistent in all sports and is on an 11-1 run with his unique MLB Power systems. Be sure to tune in to Rob every Monday night at 7:05 eastern for his weekly sports talk radio show segment for additional free picks at 88.9 wsia Fm. Or Listen online at http://tunein.com/radio/WSIA-889-s22807. Have a great NBA Playoff season. Rob Vinciletti