Steve Merril's MLB Report (June 17)

YANKEES at NATIONALS (Over 8, +105) – 1:35 pm ET #961-962

Not an official play, but I would rate the Over as a light lean today.

The Nationals have only been swept once in a 3-game series this season. They try to prevent it from happening again on Sunday afternoon when they wrap up their series with the Yankees. Edwin Jackson is 3-3 with a 3.02 ERA in 12 starts this season. He has had a bit of an issue with walks lately allowing ten in his last three starts while striking out only 12. Last year, he faced the Yankees in New York and allowed 6 runs in four innings walking five while only striking out two. Overall, Jackson is 2-6 with a 5.37 ERA in 12 career starts against the Bronx Bombers. Derek Jeter (11-31), A-Rod (9-24), Nick Swisher (5-15) and Mark Teixeira (4-14) all hit the righty well. The Yankees have scored 4 runs or more in 9 of their last 12 games and they are rounding into form offensively.

Ivan Nova is 8-2 with a 4.64 ERA in 12 starts this season. Nova has been mediocre as a starter giving up 88 hits in just over 77 innings. He has not lost on the road in six starts while giving up 17 runs and 43 hits. He will face a Washington offense that is hitting over .265 in their last eight games. They are scoring nearly 5 runs per game in interleague play and they have improved with Michael Morse back in the lineup. These two teams have played back-to-back Overs and we expect another high-scoring game this afternoon.

BREWERS at TWINS (Over 8.5, +110) – 2:10 pm ET #965-966

Not an official play, but I would rate the Over as a light lean today.

The Twins try to slow down their losing streak on Sunday afternoon as they host Milwaukee. They'll get a second look at Zack Greinke who beat them back in May after giving up 1 run and five hits in just over six innings. Greinke is 3-8 with a 4.76 ERA in 17 career starts against Minnesota with nine of those games going Over the total. He may not be at his best on Sunday; Greinke is just 3-2 with a 5.06 ERA and five Overs in seven road starts this season. Joe Mauer (13-43), Denard Span (6-21) and Danny Valencia (4-7) have hit the former Royals’ pitcher hard. The Twins may not be winning, but they are hitting well over .300 in their last eight games. They have gone Over the total in 8 of their 10 interleague games as well. The Brewers’ bullpen is 8-14 on the season with seven blown saves so they can be beaten.

Nick Blackburn continues to be awful for the Twins despite winning two straight starts. He's 3-4 with a 7.69 ERA in nine starts this season striking out only 21 in almost 44 innings. Blackburn gave up 6 runs and six hits to the Brewers last year in a 9-7 game against Zack Greinke. Ryan Braun (7-12) has had fun facing the Twins’ starter. Milwaukee's offense has scored at least 5 runs in both games so far this series. They have gone Over in 14 of their 26 day games. The Twins’ bullpen has been beaten up a bit this series and they have an ERA over 4.00 at home. We expect to see a lot of runs scored in a high-scoring game on Sunday afternoon.