TEASERS: SHARP OR SQUARE BETS?

By Tony George

A recent discussion in A Sports Betting Forum prompted a reply from about these wagers. While anything short of a straight up is considered a exotic wager by many, NFL teasers are value bets in my opinion. I have a video on the homepage of my site where this is explained. Here is my respone from that forum discussion....

There are many times that a number is sharp in the NFL, I tease it usually the way of the dog when I use them as a compliment to my flat bet plays. Example: Loved Minnesota last week against the Skins, but teased them up off of 6 to 12...they won outright. Also loved Carolina last week but at 6.5 or 7 I teased them down off of key numbers of 7-6-3 and got them at -.5 or -1. So I moved through fall numbers, taking a reduced number on a fav and a higher number on a dog, both scenarios through key numbers and gained a 1 unit bonus play on my card.

You are handicapping numbers in the NFL, more so than other sport in terms of point spread. Since it is the most bet sport around, the oddsmakers make the lines pretty sharp on sides and totals so as a tool to move a line where I think it should be, I use them. YES..you have to win both games but most guys aropund with any knowledge can hit 2 NFL games with an added 12 points to the scenario more times than not. Your odds to acheive 58%-60% win rate with Teasers and make some added units in this scenario are as high or if not higher than your straight up plays.

To give you an example, a few weeks back there were back to back weeks that 10 out of he 15 games played on Sunday/ Monday landed on a key number of 3-6-7-10-13. That tells me these are KEY numbers that sharp player can manipulate and take value from it. 20 out of 30 games landed on those numbers in 2 weeks straight.

It is NOT a square bet to move a number off a fall number, and most books you can get 12 to 10 odds at the highest for a 2 Team 6 Point Teaser. That is not a huge price to pay and I have seen some offshores offer 11 to 10 odds on 2 team teases with limits of course.

I heard a stat from a guy who did my radio show a few weeks back. If you took a road division dog of +6 or greater and added the additional 6 points, that team covered 76% of the time over like a 5 year period....so in essence, in laments terms, moving a line to off a fall number and taking points is a SHARP move and not a square move.

You do not need teasers on every bet, but as my vid with VR showed, it can come in handy in certian situations, and especially in the NFL Playoffs. The lines are tight and added points are a huge help if you are willing to pay the slightly higher vig and gain some advantage. There are always limited surprises in the playoffs but usually 1 or 2 (Seatttle over New Orleans last year an example)..but most play out pretty true to form and are nailbiters..the added points help.