Michael Alexander
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Michael Alexander is the Founder and Head Handicapper of Alexander Sports. Mr. Alexander has been handicapping sports (NFL Football Picks, College Football Picks, NBA Basketball Picks, College Basketball Picks, NHL Hockey Picks, and MLB Baseball Picks) for over 20 years and holds numerous top 10 handicapping rankings and is the 2004 Overall Champion as documented at Procappers! His approach to this craft is truly unique in the industry. With a background in statistics and prior experience in finance, Michael combines in depth statistical analysis with a financial risk/reward formula. It is this method that allows Mr. Alexander to properly weigh the risk of investment vs. the possible reward of investment for each game he analyzes.
PREVIOUS FIVE DAYS' PICKS
Monday, September 06, 2010
Maryland vs. Navy (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: -6.5/-105 Navy Play Title: CFB Play of the Day
Loss
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Rating: 3 Units
Maryland is coming off a tough year going 2-10 SU and 4-7 ATS. On the road they were winless at 0-5. Their offense last season was horrible as they ranked only 102nd averaging only 316 yards per game.
The Midshipmen come into this one led by senior Ricky Dobbs who had 27 rushing TD's last season. Dobbs not only rushed for 1,203 yards but also threw for 1,031 yards. In addition to their pounding offense, Navy returns five key starters on defense. Last years defensive unit ranked 18th in scoring allowing only 19.4 points per game.
Supporting Angles: Playing against andy team (MARYLAND) in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses and won only 25% or less of their games is 22-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. NAVY is 110-79 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
Can you spell mismatch? Take: Navy
Boise State vs. Virginia Tech (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: 1.5/-107 Virginia Tech Play Title: Play on Virginia Tech
Loss
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Rating: 2 Units
Boise State comes into this season ranked 3rd in the nation and with high expectations. On reason is that the Broncos are returning all but one starter. The offense is intact and averaged 42.2 points per game to lead the nation last year. The Broncos QB, Moore is 26-1 SU and has thrown for 7,022 yards with 64 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. His 39 touchdowns to three interceptions last year was the best ratio in NCAA history. The Broncos offense will have their hands full however as the Hokies ranked ninth in average points allowed and 11th in pass defense last season, giving up only 167 yards per game with nine TDs.
Boise State also has a staunch defensive unit and lead the WAC last year holding opponents to an average of 17.1 points per game.
Virginia Tech is expected to have a great offense led by quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who had 2,311 passing yards and 370 rushing and will have his top three receivers back in Jarrett Boykin, Danny Coale and Dyrell Roberts. The offense averaged 31.8 points to rank second in the ACC last year. The Hokies also have some top running backs in Ryan Williams and Darren Evans. Williams ran for 1,655 yards and 21 touchdowns.
Supporting Angles: VIRGINIA TECH is 97-69 ATS (+21.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992. VIRGINIA TECH HC Beamer is 55-38 ATS (+13.2 Units) in the first half of the season.
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs (MLB) - 2:20 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play: Money Line: -120 Houston Astros Play Title: MLB Play of the Day
Loss
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Rating: 3 Units w/ Rodriguez
CHICAGO CUBS are 9-20 (-21.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season this season.
HOUSTON is 14-5 (+14.9 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 3-12 (-13.4 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT
Free Play
Play: Money Line: 152 Tampa Bay Rays Play Title: MLB Free Pick - Tampa Bay vs Boston
Loss
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The Red Sox are coming off a season breaking sweep versus the Chicago White Sox over the weekend putting them a distant 10 games off the pace in the AL East. Tonight the Red Sox send left-hander, John Lester, to the hill to face a tough Tampa team that is a stellar 31-15 against lefties this season.
The Rays counter with righty, Jeff Niemann, tonight who has had a good year thus far sporting a respectable 3.97 ERA in 24 starts. The Red Sox have had trouble versus right-handed starters at Fenway,
Tampa Bay has had a lot of success versus the Red Sox this season going 10-5 this season.
I can't see the Rays as this large of a dog. Good value with a far superior team.
Take: Tampa Bay
Sunday, September 05, 2010
SMU vs. Texas Tech (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: -13.5/-104 Texas Tech Play Title: Play on Texas Tech
Loss
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Rating: 3 Units
There's a new coaching at Texas Tech but the Red Raiders come into this game still with Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield at QB who torched the opponents for big points last season and they have 10 of the top 11 pass catchers to throw to. You can also bet that talented RB Baron Batch will be a bigger part of the offense as well. The Red Raider powerful offense will be going against a Mustang defense that really doesn't have a whole lot of depth.
The SMU Mustangs start the season having to replace Shawnbrey McNeal who ran for 1,188 yards and 12 TD’s last year and Emmanuel Sanders who had 98 receptions and seven TDs.
Supporting Angles: TEXAS TECH is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games in the first half of the season since 1992. SMU is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in the first month of the season since 1992.
Too much of a difference between these two teams at this point to worry about the number. Take: Texas Tech
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox (MLB) - 1:35 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play: Money Line: 129 Chicago White Sox Play Title: MLB Play of the Day
Win
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Rating: 3 Units
The White Sox are coming off a double-header sweep yesterday over the Red Sox and look to complete the series sweep when they send lefty, Mark Buehrle to the hill. Buehrle has had a good year for Chicago posting a respectable 3.95 ERA in his 27 starts. Today he'll be facing a Red Sox team that is only 2-11 versus left handed starters in day games this season.
The Red Sox counter with righter hander Josh Beckett. Beckett has had a horrible season and comes into this one with a sky high 6.21 ERA in 16 starts. Unfortunately for the Red Sox the White Sox have been very profitable on the road versus right handed starters pulling in over $1200 against the money line.
The wrong team is favored in this one. Take: White Sox w/ Buehrle
Saturday, September 04, 2010
Connecticut vs. Michigan (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: 3/-116 Connecticut Play Title: Play on UConn
Loss
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Rating: 2 Units
UConn comes into this game returning 8 starters on each side of the ball after an 11-2 SU mark in 2009 whild Michigan has only posted an 8-16 mark the last two seasons under HC Rich Rodriguez. Yet they are the underdogs.
Included in the 8 offensive starters for UConn is starting QB Zach Frazier. He will be going against a Michigan defense who allowed 330 points, which was the 2nd worst performance in school history. As a result the defense has a new Coordinator, Greg Robinson.
To Cap off the winner, UConn is 7-0 ATS as a dog over the last two seasons.
Take the points in this one.
Oregon State vs. TCU (NCAAF) - 7:45 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: -13.5/-105 TCU Play Title: ESPN Easy Play
Loss
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Rating: 3 Units
In a prime time matchup the TCU Horned Frogs will be out to prove a point and ready for bear in this primetime matchup on ESPN in Cowboys Stadium.
The Horned Frogs bring back seven starters from a defensive unit that held opponents to a college football best 240 yards per game last season. In addition TCU has QB Andy Dalton who leads the nation in QB wins.
The Oregon State Beavers has a pair of outstanding offensive players in RB Jacquizz Rodgers and his brother WR James. However, the Beavers have really struggled when on the road as HC Mike Riley is a horrible 1-12 ATS during the first month of the season. Tonight he will be facing the sixth ranked team on the road.
Oregon is OREGON ST is 6-22 ATS in road games in September games since 1992 while TCU is 15-5 ATS when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
This is an easy one.......Take the Horned Frogs
Purdue vs. Notre Dame (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: 11/-108 Purdue Play Title: Play on Purdue
Push
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Rating: 2 Units
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come in with a new offensive coordinator, and new QB, Dayne Crist, and a new defensive coordinator. The Irish will put a senior class out on the field that is 16-21 the last three seasons
The Boilermakers start a QB, Robert Marve who is surrounded by a deep cast of receivers including probably one of the nations best in Keith Smith. That alone should allow them to score and keep the game close.
Supporting Angles: Playing against a home team (NOTRE DAME) that is a poor passing defense from last season and allowed a comp pct of 58% or worse, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season is 33-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons. NOTRE DAME is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Way too many points to give in a situation like this. Take Purdue
LAA Angels vs. Oakland Athletics (MLB) - 4:10 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play: Money Line: -135 Oakland Athletics Play Title: MLB Play of the Day
Win
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Rating: 3 Units w/ Cahill
The Angels' continue to struggle as the season winds down and is only 3-7 the last 10 days.
Oakland on the other hand is 20-5 in day games at McAfee Coliseum. In addition, the A's send pitching gem,
Trevor Cahill, to the hill. Cahill has a sparkling 2.82
ERA in 24 starts.
The Angels counter with Jered Weaver who has had a good season but has struggled on the road as his ERA baloons to 4.60.
Good price with a home team and the superior pitcher this afternoon.
Western Michigan vs. Michigan State (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: -23.5/-103 Michigan State Play Title: Play on Michigan State
Win
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Rating: 2 Units
The Spartans come into this game looking to atone for a horrible end to the 2009 campaign that saw they lose 42-14 to Penn State and then have 11 players suspended for the bowl loss to Texas Tech. The Spartans come in with an established AB in Kirk Cousins and plenty of depth at RB. On defense the Spartans have a solid group of line backers.
To start off the season Western Michigan is 0-4 SU and ATS in openers under HC Bill Cubit, losing to the spread by 46.5 points in those games. What won't help matters is that they also loss veteran QB, Tim Hiller.
Last season they took on the Spartans and were down 35-0 at halftime, and allowed 30 first downs and 602 yards.
One of the bigger mismatches on today's card. Don't worry about the number in this one, take MICHIGAN STATE
Michael's MLB Dog of the Day (16-4 Angle)
Michael is a PROFITABLe 5-2 his L7 overall MLB selections and has hit over 63% of his Top Plays this season making his clients a fist full of CASH! Tonight Michael unloads on the books again with his MLB Dog of the Day! This Loud Barker is backed by a solid 16-4 WINNING angle! "Guys, the wrong team is favored in this one....I GUARANTEE you this dog barks LOUD!"
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The more you read about trends and angles the more you can get confused with making a profitable NFL pick. Over the years I have been successful in utilizing trends and angles as a part of my NFL picks handicapping arsenal. One such slant on these trends that has been useful is that of the head coaches. Yes, the players are the ones who ultimately excute the coaches NFL picks game plan but i ... read more
Over the course of the last few NFL Picks years there has been much talk about parity. In fact, for the most part, if you were a bettor who just loved to wager on the favorites you would have drained your NFL Picks bankroll and made your book maker very happy. However, this season has seen the reversal of fortunes. So much for parity as the NFL Picks favorite has dominated this season. With ... read more
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Michael Alexander Release Times
Micheal releases all of his selections by Noon Eastern Time each day including holidays and weekends.
Michael Alexander Rating System
Michael's releases his plays based on the following unit values:
1 Unit - Opinion Play
2 Unit - Daily Normal Play
3 Unit - Play of the Day
4 Unit - Game of the Week/Game of the Month
5 Unit - Game of the Month/Game of the Year
Michael Alexander Money Management
It is a fact that most people lose money when betting on sports. The biggest reason is that the betting public does not have the discipline to stick to a betting plan through both hot and cold streaks. Michael is able to combat that with his Money Management game plan. Each of his selections are rated based on statistical analysis, an asset allocation strategy, and current hot/cold streak. This allows Michael's clients to take advantage of his hot streaks and pile on the cash and minimize the risks when he hits the enevitable cold streak.
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