I'm playing on Villanova and Robert Morris to finish UNDER the total. While Villanova boasts a potent offense, Robert Morris got here on the strength of its defense. After winning their conference title game by a score of 52-50, coach Mike Rice was quoted as saying: "To be honest with you, I have no idea what we do sometimes on offense. My whole thing is -- defend." Rice's team held Quinnipiac to a mere six field goals in the second half. Quinnipiac coach Tom Moore, a former Connecticut assistant noted: "It's a phenomenal stat to hold a team to six field goals in a half on their court in a championship game. When you play a defensive team this good and they wear you down, anytime you create an open shot, you've got to make the open shot." The 50 points the Colonials allowed in the Northeast title game marked the fifth straight game in which the Colonials allowed 63 or fewer points. Of course, none of those teams had an offense like Villanova and they'll very likely give up more than that here. Still, the point is, that they're a defensive-minded team and they should be able to slow down the Wildcats, at least a little. Note that the Colonials' senior guard Mezie Nwigwe was the Defensive Player of the Year in their conference. Also, note that Robert Morris lost 77-62 vs. Michigan State in the first round last year. The 139 combined points scored in that one would be enough to comfortably stay below this afternoon's big number. Also, note that the UNDER is 3-0 the last three times the Colonials played a game with an O/U line in the 140s. While I've already acknowledged Villanova can put up big points, it should be noted that the Wildcats have still seen four of their last six games stay below the total. One of those games saw them limit South Florida to just 49 points (74-49 win), so they're certainly capable of shutting teams down. I don't expect them to allow many this afternoon and look for the UNDER to improve to 10-5 the last 15 times that they were playing with five or six day's rest in between games. *10

I'm playing on UNLV. Eight vs. nine matchups are generally pretty interesting and this one is no exception. The Panthers were the class of the Missouri Valley this season. They finished first in the regular season and proceeded to win the MVC Conference Tournament. The Rebels didn't win the Mountain West tournament (lost in Finals vs. SD. State) but did enough during the regular season to earn an at-large bid. While the Panthers boast the better overall record, the Rebels played the tougher schedule. The Mountain West had some really strong teams this season while the Missouri Valley wasn't quite as strong as it is some years. Note that UNLV played 10 NCAA Tournament teams while Northern Iowa only played two. Many will be looking to back the Panthers here based on the fact that they won their tournament and because of their better overall record. However, earning an at-large bid is no easy task. UNLV coach Lon Kruger agrees. He was quoted as saying: "Not everyone realizes how hard it is to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. These guys are very deserving and they will work hard preparing during the next couple days." UNLV guard Tre'Von Willis believes his team will be ready and I believe that he'll be right. Willis was quoted as saying: "To be on the national stage, I can't wait to get out there on the floor and show the world what this team is about," Willis said. "I am definitely going to do my role. We have a couple days to prepare and I am excited. You can see the look in the guys' eyes and faces, and you can tell that we are ready to try and make some special things happen." Most have heard that the Panthers are very good defensively. That's true. However, many might be surprised to learn that the Rebels actually held opponents to a slightly lower-shooting percentage this season. UNLV opponents shot 39.8. Northern Iowa opponents shot 40.3. A poor offensive effort in the Tournament Finals notwithstanding, the Rebels have the edge on the offensive side of the ball. The Rebels averaged 73.3 points while shooting 46.2% of their shots. The Panthers, on the other hand, shot 43.1% while scoring only 63.3 points. On the road, the Panthers averaged 61.5 and 41.8%. The Rebels scored 71.2 points per game on the road while hitting 45.6% of their shots. Both teams are capable and both have had great seasons. In the end, however, I look for UNLV's offensive advantage to be the difference with the Rebels improving to 13-2 their last 15 non-conference games. *10

I'm playing on BUTLER. The Miners have had a great season and I respect them. That said, Butler is a very tough draw for them. The Bulldogs are well-coached, very disciplined and play great defense. Critics will point out that Butler plays in a weak conference. That's true - the Horizon League isn't one of the stronger conferences in the country. Let's not forget that the Bulldogs have played numerous quality non-conference foes though. The list of decent opponents that they have faced includes UAB, Clemson, UCLA, Xavier, Minnesota, Northwestern, Siena, Georgetown and Ohio State. Utep has played in a tougher conference - although C-USA isn't exactly the Big East or the Big 12. However, the Miners arguably didn't play as tough a non-conference slate. They spit with New Mexico State while losing against BYU, Texas Tech and Ole Miss. They did beat one Big 12 opponent but that was Oklahoma and the Sooners finished in the basement of the Big 12 with a 13-18 overall record. UTEP scores more points and admittedly has a potent inside-out attack. However, Butler allows fewer. The Bulldogs have been particularly stingy lately. Over their last five games, they're outscoring opponents by a score of 71 to 55.8. The Miners have scored an equal number of points (71) over their last five but are allowing 64.4. Note that the Miners haven't won a first round NCAA tournament game since 1992 and Tony Barbee is making his first appearance here, as a head coach. After seeing his team routed by Butler in the Horizon League Finals, Wright State coach Brad Brownell was quoted as saying this of the Bulldogs: "With what they've done, they way they're playing now -- winning 20 in a row -- I don't think many teams in the country would go through our league and win every game..." Note that no other team has ever gone undefeated in Horizon League play. While the Miners have recently tasted defeat, the Bulldogs haven't lost in months. They're 4-1-1 ATS (5-1 SU) the last six times that they were listed as neutral court favorites of three points or less and I look for them to improve on those stats and advance to the next round. *8

I'm taking the points with MIAMI. These teams have met three times this season. The Heat were underdogs in all three games but won two of them outright. I feel they've got a great shot at scoring another upset tonight. The Spurs just crushed the Heat a couple of days ago. Then, the Magic just crushed the Heat last night. Therefore, many will assume that the Magic will surely crush the Heat tonight. That type of 'logic' often doesn't hold much weight in the NBA though. Indeed, the opposite can often be true. Let's not forget that prior to getting blown out by the Spurs, the Heat had been playing some of their best basketball of the season, winning three straight and six of seven. That stretch included victories over the likes of the Hawks and the Lakers. The Magic have also been playing very well of late and last night's win was admittedly quite impressive. That said, even with that result, they're still just 12-17-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. Even though last night's game wasn't exactly "gruelling," it should also still be noted that the Magic are just 3-7-1 ATS the last 11 times that they played the second of back to back games. The last time that they were in that situation they lost by seven points vs. Charlotte. The Magic are 1-2/ATS as road favorites of three points or less. Meanwhile, Miami is 2-1 SU/ATS as a home underdog of three points or less. In addition to playing on their homecourt, the Heat need this game more than the Magic do. Orlando is comfortably in second place in the East. They're not going to catch Cleveland and they've put some distance between themselves and the Celtics and Hawks. Miami, on the other hand, is in a dogfight with several teams. They could finish anywhere from fifth to eighth place, or even ninth if things got really bad. Including this season's earlier 104-86 win here, the Heat are also 3-1 ATS the last four times that they hosted the Magic. I expect them to bounce back from Tuesday's loss and improve on those stats here. *10