Reason: I'm playing on CONNECTICUT. The Huskies are off four straight losses, going 0-4 ATS. That's kept this line a little lower than it easily could have been. Given that I expect them to bounce back with a big win, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Like UConn, Seton Hall is also really struggling. In fact, the Pirates have lost five straight. They've dropped three in a row on the road and are 1-4 (2-3 ATS) on the road since Christmas. While both teams surely badly want to bounce back with a victory, the Huskies play with the added incentive of "revenge," as the Pirates hammered them at Seton Hall recently. Games at Connecticut have been a different story though, as the Huskies have dominated the Pirates here. In fact, prior to last month's loss, UConn had won 11 straight in the series. The Huskies managed only 44 points scored in Wednesday's loss to Georgetown. That was their second lowest total in Big East play in the entire Jim Calhoun era. Needless to say, they'll be fired up to bounce back with a much better offensive performance. Facing a Pirates team that allows more than 66 (66.7) points per game on the road should help. The Pirates are 3-9 SU the last dozen times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s. Conversely, the Huskies are 10-2 the last 12 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 120s. I expect them to improve on those stats, covering the relatively small number along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on UConn and Seton Hall to finish OVER the total. Both these teams have really struggled offensively recently. That's resulted in losing streaks for each team. Its also led to a very low O/U line, as both teams have been on an "under" streak. (Last month's meeting finished 'over' and it had an O/U line of 134.5.) With both teams determined to rebound with a much better offensive performance, I'm expecting considerably more points here. The Huskies managed only 44 points scored in Wednesday's loss to Georgetown. That was their second lowest total in Big East play in the entire Jim Calhoun era. Needless to say, they'll be fired up to bounce back with a much better offensive performance. Facing a Pirates team that allows more than 66 (66.7) points per game on the road should help. The Huskies are tough defensively wherever they play. However, unlike most teams, they're actually currently allowing more at home than they do on the road. Meanwhile, the UConn offense is scoring MUCH more at home. On the road, the Huskies are averaging a mere 58.5 points. At home, the Huskies are averaging a respectable 72.6. Seven of the last 12 meetings in this series have finished above the total. I look for this one to do the same. *9

Reason: I'm playing on PURDUE. The Hoosiers come in with the higher ranking. However, this game being played at Purdue, I believe that the Boilermakers are favored for good reason. The Hoosiers are actually fortunate to even be ranked at all still. Yes, they did get off to a great 15-1 start. However, they're only 3-5 on the road for the season and they've now lost five of their last seven overall. The two wins came over fairly weak opponents too, as they were facing Penn State and Iowa. Winning a road game against a determined Purdue team figures to be far more difficult. Of course, Indiana coach Tom Crean knows that fact all too well. The Hoosiers are 0-5 against Purdue under his watch. They've lost those games by an average of more than 12 points, too. Both last season's meetings resulted in double-digit victories for the Boilermakers. Of course, winning on the road in conference play is always difficult for Crean's crew, regardless of venue. Indeed, the Hoosiers are a horrendous 2-31 on the road in Big Ten play under Crean. Both wins came at Penn State, too. Not surprisingly, the Hoosiers are an ugly 9-19 ATS the last 28 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, including 0-3 ATS their last three in that role. While Indiana is off a double-digit blowout loss vs. Michigan, Purdue is off a momentum-building win at Northwestern. While Indiana is 1-4 SU/ATS the last five times that it played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range, the Boilermakers are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line in that range. Indiana falls from the rankings and Purdue continues its domination of Crean. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BOSTON. Due to the early start time, I'm keeping this one short and sweet. The Bruins are off a 3-0 loss vs. the Hurricanes. This team has been at its best off a loss though, particularly a "bad" one. Indeed, the champs are a perfect 7-0 the last seven times that they were off a loss of two or more goals. During the same stretch, note that the Penguins, who are off a shutout loss of their own, are an ugly 3-7 after scoring one goal or less in its previous game. The Pens have fared very well against the league's weaker teams. However, they're still short-handed and they've struggled against quality competition. They're just 10-14 (-7) against winning teams. They're now 46-56 (-23.2) against teams with a winning record the past few seasons. On the other hand, Boston has thrived against quality competition. Indeed, the Bruins are an outstanding 18-6 (+8.2) against teams with a winning record. Not surprisingly, given those stats, Boston won this season's lone meeting. Given their ability to bounce back and with the Bruins outscoring teams by a 3.4 to 2.1 margin on this rink, I feel this afternoon's price is more than fair. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Due to the early start time, I'm keeping this one short and sweet. Both teams are off a win last time out. The Devils defeated a struggling Montreal team. The Flyers dominated a red-hot Nasvhille team, winning 4-1. They're now 14-7 against teams with a winning record this season. The Flyers have taken two of three meetings with the Devils this season. The visiting team won all three of those games. That's not "normal" here in Philly though as the Flyers have still won 10 of 13 home meetings in the series. That includes an 8-2 mark their last 10 here. I expect them to build off the Nashville win and add to those stats here. *8

Reason: I'm playing on UTAH. The Jazz have payback on their minds, as the Lakers have already beaten them twice this season. This should be the perfect spot to exact some revenge. While the Lakers played a hard-fought game in the high-altitude of Denver last night, the Jazz had the day off. The Jazz are dealing with some injuries but I expect the day off to have helped and look for them to come together for this important game. Note the LA is just 3-5 ATS when playing the second of back to back games. Yes, the Lakers are off back to back road wins. They're still only 3-7 SU/ATS on the road for the season though. They've been outscored by an average score of 97.5 to 91.6 on the road. On the other hand, the Jazz are 10-4 SU and 8-5-1 ATS at home. They've outscored opposing teams by a 99.2 to 93.3 margin here. LA is not in one of its better roles. The Lakers are 8-15 ATS (7-16 SU) the past few seasons as a road underdog of three or fewer points. The Jazz got hammered at Golden State last time out. That was a tough scheduling spot for them though. Now, as noted, they've had a day off. They're 26-17-1 ATS (28-16 SU) the past couple of seasons when off a double-digit loss. With an O/U line in the high 180s, note that the Lakers are a dismal 3-10 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. During the same stretch, the Jazz are an impressive 8-2 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the same range. The Lakers head east for some games against some top teams from the Eastern Conference. Off last night's win and having already beaten the Jazz twice, they could easily get caught looking ahead here. Not so for the Jazz, who should be fully focused on the task at hand. Payback. *10