5* MLB Run Line Game of the Month on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +129 The Rays, who are trying to keep pace with the Yankees in the AL East, are showing extraordinary value on the run line with Price on the hill tonight. Price is a perfect 5-0 (6-0 on the money line) in his career against the Jays. He has faced Toronto 3 times in 2010, and all 3 of those wins have come by at least 4 runs. Price's success against the Jays shouldn't come as a surprise, since they are hitting just .220 against southpaw starters this season. Marcum, who takes the mound for Toronto tonight, was on the losing end of 2 matchups with Price this season. He has been shelled by the Rays this season, allowing 12 runs in just 12 1/3 innings. We also can't ignore the fact that plays on all favorites with a money line of -150 or more, if that team has a batting average of .260 or worse and is facing a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better in the second half of the season, are 54-15 since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average score of 5.7 to 2.9 over the last 13 seasons. Take the Rays on the run line.

3* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Padres -138 The Padres have lost 6 in a row, but I fully expect the best team in the NL West to rise up and avoid the sweep against the worst in the division tonight. The Padres will be in good hands with Latos, who gives them the edge on the hill. He is 13-5 with an ERA of 2.28 this season, and he has done some of his best work on the road, going 9-3 (11-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.41. I love the fact that San Diego is 7-1 in its last 8 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, 6-0 in Latos' last 6 starts during game 3 of a series and 9-0 in his last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. We also can't ignore that Arizona is 13-40 in its last 53 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The D-backs are just 3-3 in Enright's home starts this season. I'm getting behind Latos and the first place Pads in this extreme bounce back spot.

3* SMASH on Red Sox -1.5 -130 The Red Sox can't afford another loss as they watch the Yankees and Rays continue to pull away. After 3 straight defeats, look for the Sox to bounce back in a big way tonight. They are in great hands with Lester, who is 12-0 (14-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.00 in his career against the O's. Keep in mind that this is the best record any active starter has against an opponent in the bigs. Also keep in mind that 11 of those wins have come by at least 2 runs. Arrieta takes the mound for Baltimore, and he is carrying an ERA of 5.40 at home this season. He has lost his last 3 starts, and the Orioles haven't managed a single run of support for him in his last 2. Plus, plays against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20), if they are also cold at the plate, batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games, are 54-11 the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 2.6 runs per game. Take Boston on the run line.

FREE PLAY 1 Unit on New York Yankees -142 With yesterday's loss, the A's fell to 1-10 in their last 11 road meetings with the Yankees. Expect their struggles in New York to continue with Anderson on the hill this evening. The Athletics are 0-4 in the southpaw's last 4 starts. Plus, he is 0-2 (0-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 5.68 in his career against the Yankees. Burnett has really been getting hit hard, but I believe a ridiculously bad start against Chicago his last time out will wake him up tonight. He has won his only start against the A's this season, allowing only 2 runs on 5 hits at Oakland, and he has a very solid 3.81 lifetime ERA against the A's. Plus, the Yankees are 7-2 in Burnett's last 9 starts during game 3 of a series. The Yankees are an awesome 85-32 in their last 117 home games, and I'll back them at a decent price tonight.