4* Sun Belt SMASH (ESPN2) on Denver -1.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Denver to know the target off MTSU's back in its return home Saturday. Denver is a terrific 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons. It is also 7-0 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons when matched up against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. We also can't ignore the fact that coach Joe Scott's clubs are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%). Denver doesn't take many bad shots and shoots a high percentage because of it. This bodes well for us considering MTSU is just 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games versus very good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or more. The Blue Raiders have lost to these foes by an average score of 77.1 to 62.7. Take Denver.

4* SEC Game of the Week on LSU -3.5 Off 3 straight losses to arguably the 3 best teams in the SEC (Florida, Mississippi St., Kentucky), expect LSU to take out its frustrations on an Arkansas squad that is 0-6 away from home on the season. The Razorbacks haven't just lost those 6 games, they've lost them by a whopping 12.4 points on average. Arkansas' road struggles extend further back than this season. The Razorbacks are 2-12 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons, 15-37 ATS in their last 52 road games and 24-53-2 ATS in their last 79 games as a road underdog. Arkansas' recent 82-point effort in a win over Vandy suggests a letdown as well. It was the first time the Razors broke the 70-point mark in 7 games, and they are 0-6 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It is also of the utmost importance to note that the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll lay the points.

5* MAC Game of the Year on Toledo +5.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by 4 straight losses in the series, I like Toledo's chances of pulling off this upset. Buffalo has not been the same team on the road, where it has lost 4 of its last 6. It is worth noting that just one of those 2 wins in this stretch came by more than 2 points, and that was against a Northern Illinois squad that's 2-18. The Bulls have certainly struggled at Toledo, where they have lost 6 of the last 7 meetings by an average score of 78.0 to 63.0. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 overall meetings. It should also be noted that the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Toledo is 9-1 ATS in home games after 2 straight games of allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher since 1997. Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. It is also 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Witherspoon after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games. It's losing by an average of 4.0 points in this spot. Take Toledo.