Matt Fargo
Matt has TWO plays Monday (2 CFB).
He is riding a SIZZLING 13-7-2 ATS (65%) run in CFB dating back to the start of 2010! Matt WON his CFB Report for Sunday as the Tulsa/East Carolina Over covered by 41 points!
With over 12 years of sports handicapping experience, my analysis, information and expert picks give you what you want.... winners! I’m not here claiming to be undefeated over the last 10 years and I’m not going to fill your head with any useless inside information, because it doesn't exist. I do my homework plain and simple and come up with the plays that give us the best chance of winning. When you win, we win. You will see that our angles, statistical analysis and handicapping approaches will make you a consistent winner. One of the most drawn on adages in sports handicapping is that it’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon. I cannot agree more. Consistency over the long haul is what every sports bettor should be interested in and that is what I provide. When the winning days outnumber the losing days by a large margin, I must be doing something right. Keep three things in mind when looking for sports service - Consistency, Honesty, and Integrity. You’ve found all three right here!
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Monday, September 06, 2010
Maryland vs. Navy (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: -6.5/-102 Navy
Loss
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Navy is going to be a pretty popular pick in this game but it is for good reason. Expectations are once again high for the Midshipmen who finished 10-4 a season ago including an impressive 22-point slashing of Missouri in the Texas Bowl. Most of the pieces are back for Navy to make another impressive run as the schedule sets up nicely for it with just four true road games and eight games against non-winning team from last season. One of those teams is Maryland. The Terrapins were a horrible 2-10 last season and it was the first 10-loss season in the history of the program. Saying that head coach Ralph Friedgen is on the hot season is an understatement. It isn’t to say that the Terrapins won’t improve this season as they most likely will but how much improvement is the question. It may take some time as this team is still very young and the matchups just do not set them up well in this game. Navy returns all of the playmakers in its triple-option running attack that finished 4th in the nation with 280.5 ypg. That should only get better as quarterback Ricky Dobbs enters his third season as the starting quarterback and he is healthy after being banged up the majority of last season. 10 of the 11 starters on offense are either juniors or seniors including everyone along the offensive line and that is a huge advantage. An experienced offensive like this tends to come out of the gates quicker as well. Speaking of quicker, the offense should actually be quicker this season as the Midshipmen are moving toward a no-huddle triple option. The Terrapins are not going to know what his them. The strength of the defense is at linebacker but the defensive line brings back only one starter and against a scheme like that of Navy, it is not good. Maryland finished last in the ACC and 100th in the country in scoring defense and being a year older does not necessarily make it better. Maryland was even worse offensively last season as it finished 11th in the ACC and 98th in the nation in scoring offense while also ranking 102nd in total offense and 105th in rushing offense. A change at quarterback should help but it comes down to the offensive line which was the main problem last season. That line returns three starters but consists of three sophomores and just one senior. The Navy defense was much improved last season and while it lost over half of its starters, it will be strong once again. Navy falls into a great situation as well. Play against teams in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with four or more straight losses and which won 25 percent or less of their games. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +22.5 ppg. 10* Navy Midshipmen
Boise State vs. Virginia Tech (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play: Point Spread: -1/-104 Virginia Tech
Loss
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This is exactly the way I figured this line would be moving. We could have gotten Virginia Tech as much as +3 earlier in the week but the spread should not even come into play here. This is a perfect example of the majority of the public action coming in on Boise St. yet the line moving in the complete opposite direction. As of Monday morning, 60 percent of the over 28,000 wagers have been placed on the Broncos according to some offshore consensus reports. Boise St. finished undefeated last season and are once again going to be a public darling. If the Broncos lose tonight, that National Championship dream is dead. Because they play in the WAC, they must go undefeated to land in the BCS championship game. Who do you think the pressure is on? Virginia Tech was in a similar situation a year ago when it lost its opener to Alabama which went on the win the BCS Championship. The Hokies now know what needs to get done. Last season was barely finished before the Hokies began turning their focus toward the Broncos. This game started back a few months ago for Virginia Tech as Hokies players received an e-mail in late July from their coaches informing them that oddsmakers had pegged Boise St. as the early favorite. “We started thinking about it the moment we set foot back on campus,” said senior defensive tackle John Graves. “We realize how important it is.” The key is getting Boise St. uncomfortable and actually playing with a lead. The Broncos played 840 minutes of football while going 14-0. They trailed during just two games for a total of 16 minutes, 8 seconds, or 2 percent of their entire season. Virginia Tech's defensive coaches believe they can get an uncommon victory tonight by making the Boise St.’s offense uncomfortable. Getting pressure on the quarterback is the top goal as Kellen Moore was sacked only five times all of last season. While Moore was incredible last season, Hokies quarterback Tyrod Taylor was under the radar. He led the ACC in passing efficiency while finishing 13th in the nation in that category. His best receivers are back so there will be no dropoff. Improvement in that area could even emerge as the Hokies bring back a rushing attack that is arguably the best in the country. Darren Evans who rushed for 1,265 yards in 2008 and Ryan Williams who rushed for 1,655 yards last season are both back and primed for more of the same. While a neutral field game, this is pretty much a home game for the Hokies but we are not being ask to lay a home field price. The Hokies offense should be in excellent shape and getting out to a quick start will be important as mentioned and the home crowd should allow them to do just that. The national championship hopes for the Broncos ends early this season. 9* Virginia Tech Hokies
Fargo’s **10** NFL THURSDAY MINN/NO *ANNIHILATOR*
Matt finished a TERRIFIC 11-6-1 ATS (64.7%) in the NFL Preseason and he will be riding that into Week One of the regular season! Last year it was another spectacular season in the NFL as Matt WON +61.5 Units on the year culminating with his outright WIN on the Saints in the Super Bowl! NFC Championship rematch Winner Thursday! Watch and Win on NBC with Fargo!
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The SEC has long been considered the toughest conference in football and rightfully so. It has produced the last three National Champions, Florida twice with LSU sandwiched in-between. The SEC leads all conferences in all-time titles with 17 and there will be teams looking to add to that this season and with legitimate shots in doing so. The leader of the pack is defending champion Florida who is ... read more
As strong as the Big XII South is, the North is just the opposite. There are good teams within the division no doubt but it is unlikely that any team will be able to challenge the top teams in the South as the top team in this division would finish either fourth or fifth in the other division. It looks as though it may be a two-team race in the North between Kansas and Nebraska although Colorado c ... read more
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Matt Fargo Release Times
Plays are released every morning for your benefit so you have the ability to shop around for the best lines possible.
Matt Fargo Rating System
Rating Scale
Play Rating will be displayed in each title since no one rates games the same.
**10**
This is the “BEST of the Best” …These ratings are not frequent as they are THE TOP PLAY of all TOP PLAYS released. There is nothing higher than this.
**9**
This is the “BEST of the Rest”…these plays are just a notch below the **10** Reports and narrowly missed out on “Best of the Best” status.
**8**
This is a high-tiered TOP PLAY release and these are not released very often. These are equivalent to Game of the Month selections.
**7**
This is a low-tiered TOP PLAY release and these are released less frequently than his **8** Reports. These are equivalent to Game of the Week selections.
**5**
This is a regular selection and should be played at your normal wagering level. The majority of releases as part of a big card will be based on this unit.
**3**
This is a Low Rated selection equivalent to a Free Play. All Free plays will have a rating as no ‘opinions’ are released.
Matt Fargo Money Management
All games are rated by units and it is important to stick with those units to maximize your profits in the long run.
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