The Reds took the opener of this series last night to remain two and a half games behind St. Louis in the National League Central. Cincinnati also improved to 3-1 over the last four meetings with Pittsburgh after getting swept in the opening series of the season. The Reds have to feel good about the pitching matchup tonight as will a lot of bettors but this is a perfect contrarian setup, very similar to playing against Arizona last night. Mat Latos takes the hill for Cincinnati and he enters Tuesday without a loss in his last 21 starts, a franchise record. He is 6-0 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 14 starts including a 4-0 records at home. Certainly, these undefeated streaks are not going to last and what better spot than here by taking a team that is only a game and a half worse yet the moneyline is telling us the difference is significant, which it is not. The Pirates are only four games behind the Cardinals as they have alternated wins and losses over their last six games. Charlie Morton will be taking the hill for just his second start of the season after missing over a year because of Tommy John surgery. He was decent in his season debut as he allowed two earned runs in five innings while striking out five and walking just one. I expect him to be much more comfortable tonight and his last three starts in Cincinnati have produced a 1.48 ERA. 9* (905) Pittsburgh Pirates

The Rangers were able to hold off Oakland last night to put an end to their six-game slide. That was a big win against the A's as it narrowed the gap in the American League West to just two games and Texas will be another popular bet tonight as the thinking is a winning streak will get started with Yu Darvish on the hill. He is no doubt having a spectacular season with a 2.64 ERA and 03.94 WHIP in 14 starts but those numbers are not as good at home despite more wins. The Rangers are just 9-5 in those 14 starts and while that is still a solid winning percentage, it does not correlate to his overall numbers. He is 1-3 with a 3.81 ERA in four career starts against the A's and the Rangers are 1-4 in Darvish's last five starts as a favorite. Meanwhile the A's are 9-1 in their last 10 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. Oakland has just one win in its last four games but at 42-30, it possesses the second best record in the American League which makes this line completely in the wrong. It is even more justified with the A's starting pitcher on the hill as Jarod Parker is no pushover. His overall numbers are average but he has turned it around after a rough start, posting seven straight quality starts while putting up a 2.40 ERA over that stretch. Oakland is 7-0 in his last seven starts with a total between 7.0 and 8.5 and I expect that streak to continue with what many will call an "upset". 9* (919) Oakland A's

We won with the Over in Game Three as the number cleared the total by three points and that gamer triggered an Over barrage as the last two games have also gone over the total. The last two were not even close as Game Four saw 202 points while Game Five saw 218 points. That last game was easily the highest scoring game of the season series between the Heat and Spurs, regular season and playoffs, and it was also the highest scoring regulation game for San Antonio in the playoffs. It was also the highest scoring game for Miami in the playoffs as well so that will only help us out even more here. People will be expected to see the high scoring continue because that is what they want to see but I expect the exact opposite here. Because of the recent high scoring, the linesmakers have been forced to adjust the total to accommodate the Over action and thus, we are seeing the highest total of this series so far. That presents a ton of value. San Antonio is 8-1 to the under this season after allowing 100 or more points in two straight games and while going 12-3 to the under this season after scoring 60 or more points in the first half. Miami has gone under the total in four straight home games while going 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games against winning teams. The Spurs also have a solid situation on their side for a low scoring game as we play the under where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points involving a team shooting 46 percent or better on the season going up against an opponent that allowed 55 percent or higher in its last game. This situation is 50-22 (69.4 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (711) San Antonio Spurs/(712) Miami Heat

While this may look like a mismatch on paper, it is far from it as we are playing with a huge moneyline by going against one of the biggest streaks in baseball. Miami hits the road following a successful homestand where it went 3-3 and going back further, it is 8-6 over its last 14 games. The pitching has been the difference in those victories and should keep it around here again tonight as Jacob Turner takes the hill in search of his second win. This is just his fourth start of the season but he has been outstanding thus far, posting three quality outings for a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP covering 20 innings. Going back to last season, he has a 2.87 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 10 starts since coming to Miami from Detroit. The Diamondbacks were swept in San Diego following a series win in Los Angeles and they maintain a half-game lead in the National League West. They head home with a 17-14 record at Chase Field and feel good about Patrick Corbin taking the hill but this is the tie to fade as he is completely overvalued and will be until he loses. He is 9-0 on the season while Arizona is 13-0 in his 13 starts. He has started to leak some oil though as he has allowed four runs in two of his last three starts and the Marlins are now 6-1 in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. 9* (959) Miami Marlins

This is a perfect example of a team being overvalued based on name alone. The Angels are nine games under .500 this season while their 30-39 record is third worst in the American League and even though they are a half-game worse than Seattle, they are being asked to lay a massive moneyline tonight. Los Angeles is one of only four teams in the American League with a losing record at home and it is 3-7 in its last 10 games when listed as the favorite. Jason Vargas is having a very solid season with a 3.74 ERA through 13 starts but the Angels are just 7-6 in those games. More troubling is the fact Vargas has a 1.41 WHIP and that ratio is often a lot more important than the ERA. While he did pitch well, he was shouldered with the loss in his first start this season against his former team. The Mariners took two of three in Oakland to cool off the A's and while their road record is still pretty bad, they have been better with a 4-3 record over their last seven games on the highway. Additionally, Seattle is 5-1 in its last six series openers and is hoping for another strong start from Aaron Harang. Five of his last seven starts have been quality outings and despite a 5.60 ERA overall, he has a 1.21 WHIP which is just the opposite of Vargas and shows that he is arguably the more efficient pitcher of the two. 9* (971) Seattle Mariners

As mentioned in the Game Four analysis, playing the Zig Zag Theory over the last eight games with Miami would have provided you with a perfect 8-0 ATS record as the Heat have alternated ATS wins and losses since Game Two of the Indiana series. They extended that on Thursday with an easy winner making it nine straight Heat covers by laying the bounce. I think this streak finally comes to an end however as I believe Miami takes control of the series by winning Game Five and heading home in need of just one more win to defend its NBA title. LeBron promised a better game and he didn't disappoint as he scored a team high 33 points on 15-25 shooting as Miami shot 52.9 as team. The Heat won going away despite San Antonio taking 14 more free throws but it really came down to turnovers as the Spurs had 18 of them thanks to 13 Miami steals and it will be up to the Heat to continue that defensive pressure in what is still considered a must win game. Miami also didn't allow as many open looks from three-point range as it allowed just 16 attempts and while the Spurs did make half of those, limiting the attempts is the key. Miami found its rhythm in Game Four and that is bad news for San Antonio as the Heat are a team that can use that momentum in crunch time as we saw on Thursday. The Heat have had their struggles of late following wins which have aided in the Zig Zag success but they are now 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Spurs fell to 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Getting this one early could be big as the value is on the Heat at a pickem price. 10* (709) Miami Heat

We played Minnesota last night and we will come back with the Twins again on Sunday for many of the same reasons. The Twins improved to .500 at home with Saturday's win yet they are still getting undervalued with a lot of that because of name alone. Minnesota is 3-2 on this current homestand and the pitching can take the accolades as it has allowed just only 3.0 rpg. Like Samuel Deduno last night, P.J. Walters has flourished in his limited time in the rotation as he has a 2.49 ERA in four starts, three of which have been quality. This includes a gem at Detroit and he has faced the Tigers five times since last season, posting a solid 3.16 ERA. Many will be backing Detroit thinking it is going to bounce back following a loss last night but this is not a good team on the highway as it is now four games under .500 on the road and while it has not lost consecutive games in a while, this is the time it happens. Doug Fister has been a great addition to the rotation since coming over from Seattle but he has not been getting the wins. Despite four straight quality starts, Detroit is 0-4 in those games and going back it is 0-5 in his last five games overall. This is a streak I tend not to ride but the price is too good to pass up especially considering his 3-7 career record in 10 starts against the Twins. 9* (920) Minnesota Twins

The Yankees are in an offensive slump as they have dropped five straight games with the bats averaging just 2.4 rpg over that stretch. They would like to end this roadtrip with a victory before heading back to New York and a big homestand on deck. It is not often we can catch C.C. Sabathia as a big underdog but that is the case today and no matter the pitching opponent, it is excellent value. His season ERA got pushed above 4.00 after allowing six runs in six innings at Oakland last time which was his third straight rough start on the highway and fifth straight non-quality road outing. That makes this a contrarian play and it is bolstered by the Yankees 20-6 record in his last 26 road starts against teams with a losing record. The Angels are on a rare three-game winning streak but they are still eight games under .500 on the season with a lot of ground to make up. Los Angeles has to feel good about Jered Weaver taking the hill to keep the winning streak alive but he is clearly not 100 percent. He is coming off a tough outing in Baltimore but to his credit, it was a rain-filled game, yet his arm strength does not look the same as he has just 15 strikeouts in three starts since his return from the disabled list. Even though New York does not bring the same intimidation factor that it used to, seven of his last 10 starts against the Yankees have been non-quality efforts. 9* (927) New York Yankees

It has been a very streaky season for Milwaukee which started 2-8 but put together a winning streak only to go on a miserable five-week run before winning eight of its last 14 games. After taking two of three in Miami, the Brewers lost the series opener in Cincinnati last night on a walk off home run in the bottom of the tenth inning but I expect a rebound tonight behind Yovani Gallardo. He is having an uncharacteristically bad season with a 4.74 ERA through his first 14 starts and like his team, it has been a season of streaks. He had allowed 14 runs in three straight starts prior to pitching his best game of the season last time out as he tossed eight innings of shutout baseball against the Marlins. He takes a step up in class here but he has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts against the Reds. Cincinnati made it four straight wins over Milwaukee after opening the season with a three-game sweep back in May. While the Reds are 14 games over .500 on the season, they are just 8-8 over their last 16 games. Homer Bailey gets the call for the home team and he has been solid with a 3.47 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 starts. The Reds are just 7-6 in those games and while the numbers are better at home, they are 0-5 in his last five starts pitching on four days rest and in his career, he is 1-5 with a 5.81 ERA in 11 starts against the Brewers. 9* (959) Milwaukee Brewers

I'm sure many will be on Tampa Bay today thinking it bounces back from three straight losses but I am not one of them. The Rays have been in a funk for a while as they have gone 5-8 over their last 13 games as both pitching and offense have been inconsistent. They have scored three runs or fewer in eight of those games while allowing 10 runs on four different occasions. Alex Cobb will be looking to turn things around as well as he is coming off a start where he allowed six runs in four innings against the Red Sox. The offense bailed him out though so he did not get the loss and he remains undefeated at home. He had tossed four straight quality starts prior to that and his ERA sits at a very solid 2.95 overall but we will see how his recovery pans out. In three starts against the Royals, he has a 5.23 ERA and going back, the Rays are 3-9 in Cobb's last 12 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Kansas City started the season great but then went on a miserable 5-22 run to fall well back in the American League Central. Instead of tossing in the towel completely, the Royals have won nine of their last 10 games to pull back within five games of Detroit. Jeremy Guthrie has been spot on as he has tossed three straight quality outings to improve to 7-3 with the Royals now 9-4 in his 13 starts. Also, they are 15-2 in his last 17 starts against teams with a winning record. 9* (969) Kansas City Royals

Detroit took the opener of this series behind a solid performance from Rick Porcello as he allowed just three hits in seven inning and the bullpen closed the door to preserve the shutout. Despite the win, the Tigers are still only 15-18 on the road including losses in six of their last nine games on the highway. They are 1-6 in their previous seven road games following a road win and turn to Anibal Sanchez to try and get a streak going but I do not see it happening. He has been solid at home with a 1.64 ERA and 0.80 WHIP but on the road, he has a 3.97 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in six starts. That ERA on the highway is not horrible but that high WHIP is a concern and even more so, the Tigers are just 1-5 in those six road games. That includes a loss at Minnesota earlier in the season. The Twins opened their homestand with two wins over the Phillies before dropping the series finale prior to last night's defeat. They are now just a game under .500 at home and this line is certainly not reflecting the home/road splits of the teams. It is also undervaluing Samuel Deduno who has pitched very well after getting hit hard against the Tigers but that was in Detroit. He has a 1.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in his three starts since then and in his lone home outing this season, he allowed just one run on four hits in seven innings against the Brewers. 9* (972) Minnesota Twins

The Astros won the opener of this series last night to make it two straight victories following a six-game losing streak and I expect the winning to continue. Houston is just 11-23 at home but that is just one game worse than the White Sox record on the road yet the Astros are significant home underdogs once again. They got another solid effort from Erik Bedard last night and expect the same from Lucas Harrell tonight. It has been far from a great season for Harrell but he can blame that on only four starts, two each against division leaders Detroit and Oakland. Take those four starts away and his ERA drops from 4.52 all the way down to 1.73 in his other 10 starts which is pretty spectacular when you think about it. Three of those four ugly starts came at home which is why his ERA is 6.15 but he has allowed two runs or fewer in his five other home outings. Chicago has lost two straight and remains in last place in the American League Central and is again overvalued here. The White Sox have lost 10 of their last 11 games on the road including both times when they were favored. John Danks looks to turn that around but I do not see it. In four starts this season, he has a 2.57 ERA in two home games and a 6.30 ERA in two road games and to no surprise, Chicago has lost those latter two. Houston is hitting a solid .279 at home against left-handed pitching. 9* (974) Houston Astros

Despite a 1-2 Friday, Matt has been cleaning up on the bases ALL SEASON LONG and he is looking forward to a MAMMOTH Saturday! He is on a SWEET $9,200 MLB run and in addition to his afternoon Underdog Double Play Package, he also has one going tonight! Both plays are SIGNIFICANT UNDERDOGS so even a split produces a SOLID profit!

We won with Miami last night and I feel there is once again incredible value on the Marlins tonight. They improved to 7-5 over their last 12 games following the victory last night including win in five of their last seven games at home. Pitching has been the problem in those five overall losses as they have allowed six runs or more each time out but we should not see that today with Tom Koehler on the hill. While he is still winless on the season, his numbers do not reflect that as he has a 3.91 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through six starts and he has been even more impressive at home with a 2.00 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in two starts. Both resulted in losses as his offense did nothing to help him out and while that will be a challenge tonight, the bats have started to pick things up. The Cardinals fell to 24-12 on the road which is still the best road record in baseball so expect people to be lining up behind them again tonight even at this outrageous price. Lance Lynn has a lot to do with it as he is having a great season, going 8-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 13 starts. He is coming off a rough outing last time out which also came on the road and Miami is a solid 5-1 in their last six games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15 while going 5-2 in its last seven home games against right-handed starters. Play (954) Miami Marlins

The Cardinals took two of three at Cincinnati last weekend and then opened the week by taking two of three at New York thanks to another outstanding pitching performance from Adam Wainwright. St. Louis improved to a baseball-best 24-11 on the road so it is no wonder it is a big favorite here. Additionally, with Jake Westbrook on the hill, the number is high but this is not an ideal spot for the Cardinals. Westbrook will come off the disabled list to make his first start since May 8th because of elbow inflammation and prior to that, he was awesome. He had allowed three runs or fewer in all six of his starts with five of those being quality outings but after being off for a month, anything can happen now. He will not be on a pitch count which could actually be good or bad. Miami lost two of three against Milwaukee but it is still a solid 6-5 over its last 11 games overall and has a neutralizer at pitcher. Jose Fernandez is coming off another brilliant start as he allowed one run on three hits in six innings against New York and it is that type of start which shows why he is considered the real deal. Six of his 12 starts have been quality but that includes five of his last seven and he has now allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts including two runs or less in six of those. He has been brilliant at home with a 1.55 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in five starts. 9* (908) Miami Marlins

Arizona took two of three in Los Angeles against the Dodgers before an off day on Thursday which came at a great time as the Diamondbacks had played for 14 consecutive days. They improved to 20-15 on the highway after that series win and with all other teams in the National League West not willing to make a move, they hold a 2.5-game lead in the division. Arizona is hoping for a better result from Trevor Cahill who has hit a bit of a rough patch. After putting up a 2.88 ERA through his first 11 starts, he has been shelled over his last two outings, allowing 13 runs on 18 hits in just 8.2 innings. He is obviously better than that, which we saw last season with his 3.78 ERA in 32 starts, and this is a great spot for a bounceback effort. The Padres are coming off a surprising sweep of the Braves and it was surprising as they were listed as underdogs in all three of those games. San Diego is 19-14 at home overall and while that sweep can provide some momentum, I think there is the possibility of a letdown as well. While Cahill has been struggling of late, Eric Stults has been just the opposite. He had a 4.22 ERA through 11 starts but has tossed three straight quality outings, posting a 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over that stretch. He has not walked a batter during this three-game run and while Cahill is in a bounceback spot, Stults is in the classic go against situation. 10* (913) Arizona Diamondbacks

We lost a brutal game with the Yankees yesterday as they went down in 18 innings at Oakland to complete the sweep. New York had its chances as it had runners in scoring position in each of the extra innings through 14, stranding 11 baserunners. They left 13 on base in all while dropping their seventh in a row at the Oakland Coliseum. Now they head to Anaheim to take on the Angels and we are catching a great price behind Andy Pettitte. He won his 250th game last time out as he allowed just one run on three hits in 7.1 innings against the Mariners. It was his most efficient outing of the season as he walked none while throwing just 85 pitches and he also adds an extra day of rest to the mix for this start. His best stuff has been on the road where he is 4-1 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in five starts. The Yankees are 44-17 in his last 61 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The miserable season for the Angels continues. After winning eight straight games, things looked to be turning around but they have gone 5-11 since then to fall back to 10 games under .500 and possess the second worst record in the American League. C.J. Wilson has been solid for the most part this season but he has faltered some of late with a 6.35 ERA in his last three starts and the Angels simply are not winning as they have lost six of his last seven starts. Going back further, the Angels are 4-10 in Wilsons last 14 starts against teams with a winning record while the Yankees are 11-3 in their last 14 games against left-handed starters. 9* (925) New York Yankees

Matt looks to add to his AWESOME June start where he is a BLISTERING +$8,779 in profits heading into Friday! Despite a disappointing loss on the Yankees yesterday, he is on a TREMENDOUS +$9,840 MLB run and he has a Three-Game Underdog Pass going for tonight! Fargo is ready to lay a hurting on the books with a PERFECT 3-0 SWEEP!

The A's are coming off a sweep of the Yankees as they were able to win in 18 innings on Thursday and I feel this presents a great opportunity to go against them in a letdown situation with excellent value going the other way. Oakland is now 21-5 over its last 26 games and has built a two-game lead over Texas in the American League West and this record has overinflated this number. Tom Milone takes the hill for the A's and while he is having a solid season overall, he has been inconsistent along the way. He has posted two straight quality outings which is the first time he has had more than one consecutively and I feel this is where the streak ends. Oakland is just 7-6 in his 13 starts and this is the biggest number he has been favored by all season. The A's are 2-6 in his last eight starts as a favorite. Seattle is coming off a 5-5 homestand and while it has been much worse on the road, the pitching is starting to really come around. That includes Joe Saunders. After a very rough start to the season, he has tossed three straight quality starts including his first one on the road and he can continue to build on that. The Mariners are 0-6 in his six road starts this year and that streak is bound to come to an end. Tonight is the night it does. Play (927) Seattle Mariners