10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): Chicago is a very fraudulent 5-1 SU right now as they’ve twice come back from 17+ pt deficits to win in the 2nd half. All five wins have been by 7 pts or less. They were badly outgained two weeks ago on Thursday night by Tampa Bay, yet still managed to win 20-19. They averaged only 4.1 yards per play in that game. So far, the Bears have been outgained on both a per game and per play basis this season. In the four games they didn’t rally back from 17+ down, they have failed to score more than 23 points. This is a team I want to fade.

Meanwhile, the Rams are 5-1 ATS off their L6 SU losses. They lost to 49ers as a road favorite on SNF last week, a spot where I actually played against them. But they are 4-1 ATS L5 as a home favorite. Unlike the Bears, LA is outgaining teams on a per game and per play basis. Even though Chicago is carried by its defense, the Rams are giving up fewer yards and points per game.

Only two teams in the Super Bowl era have pulled off five outright upsets in the first seven weeks of the season, which is what Chicago is vying to do here. The Bears have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games this year. Even though they've won two straight, I don't feel that QB Nick Foles has necessarily been any kind of improvement compared to Mitch Trubisky. 10* LA Rams