Heat @ Nuggets 8:30 PM ET
Game# 513-514
Play On: Denver -8.5 (5*)

Since the start of the 2021-2022 NBA season, Denver has gone an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS versus Miami. The Nuggets are also 8-0 SU at home during these 2023 NBA Playoffs with an average victory margin of 12.0 points per game. Additionally, Miami is coming off a grueling and emotional 7 game series win over Boston that just ended on Monday night in which they nearly squandered a commanding 3-0 series lead. Conversely, Denver will be playing on 9 days rest after completing a 4-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets will obviously have a huge advantage in terms of rest and preparation heading into Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals.

Since 2004, NBA Finals Game 1 home favorites like Denver have gone an extremely profitable 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83%). Furthermore, if those favorites were -5.5 to -11.5 like Denver will be in Game 1 on Thursday night, then they improve to a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS with a substantial average victory margin of 15.0 points per contest.

Give me the Denver Nuggets minus the points.