The Kansas City Chiefs have dropped four of six since a perfect 4-0 start to the season. They fell 35-32 at Tennessee last week, and I think they have a difficult task at hand tonight when taking on the LA Chargers in Mexico City Monday night.

The Chargers battled themselves back in postseason contention with back-to-back victories, but their dreams of a playoff berth took a hit with a narrow loss to Oakland last week. They enter this game third in the division at 4-6 (all one-score losses), with KC and Oakland ahead of them at 6-4. "I don’t think desperation ... I think urgency. Any other word you can think of ... I don’t think we feel desperate, although we know how crucial this game is." Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers told media.

The Chiefs have struggled to stop the run all season long, which is good news for Chargers RB Melvin Gordon who rumbled for a season-high 108 yards and a score last week.

This one is likely to go down to the wire, and I'm well happy to take the points on the Chargers.

10* play on LA Chargers.

The Charlotte Hornets are 4-2 to the under over their last six games, and their very last matchup (at New York on Saturday) saw just a total of 205 points scored. Here they'll run into one of the strongest defenses in the league, and I think this looks primed to be a low-scoring affair. The Raptors are just coming back from a tough five-game road trip and ran out of gas in the second half of a loss at Dallas last time out so they're unlikely to drive up the tempo. Meanwhile, I don't see why Charlotte would want to turn this into anything but a slow game they might be able to steal.

Under is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 Monday games. Under is 6-1 in Hornets last 7 Monday games.

8* play on UNDER.

The New York Knicks have the worst offensive efficiency in the NBA while the Cleveland Cavaliers are only marginally better, and they've been held to 97 points or fewer in three straight games. The Knicks are 8-2 to the under in their last 10 games while the Cavs have seen each of their last five games go under the total.

Scared of the low number? Don't be. Note that the over/under is 3-8 in Knicks games with a total under 218 points and 0-5 in the Cavs' five games with a total lower than 215 points.

8* play on UNDER.

The LA Lakers have the best defensive efficiency in the league, allowing just 97.2 points per 100 possessions. Atlanta has one of the worst offensive efficiency ratings in the NBA and the Hawks will be playing on no rest after taking a 119-83 beating by the Clippers last night. I think we can safely assume that the Clippers will run away with this game early and then keep the Hawks at a distance.

Under is 15-6 in Lakers last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.

10* play on UNDER.

The Chicago Bears snapped an ugly three-game skid with a 20-13 win over Detroit last week. I'm not sure if they can make it two straight up wins in a row when they visit the LA Rams Sunday afternoon, but I feel confident the home team is asked to cover too many points.

The Rams put up just 12 points and turned the ball over four times in a defeat at Pittsburgh last week, and for all the Bears' issues, their defense has not been the problem. They do not offer much on the offensive side of the ball, but Chicago QB Mitch Trubisky threw three touchdown passes last time out which should work wonders for his confidence.

We can also note that the Rams have dropped three of their last five, with wins over Atlanta and Cincinnati.

8* play on Chicago Bears.

Oregon is putting its undefeated 3-0 record on the line against Texas-Arlington Sunday night, but I don't expect this to be much of a test for the Ducks.

They've covered the spread in back-to-back games since coming up just short of the number in their season opener, including a solid 82-74 win over No. 15 Memphis in the Phil Knight Invitational. Here they'll face a Mavericks team that took an 80-73 loss at Nevada last time out in its first road game of the season. Nevada shot just 34.4% from the field in that contest and such shooting won't keep it close here.

The Ducks have been money for quite some time dating back to last season, going Ducks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

10* play on Oregon Ducks.

The Arizona Cardinals are coming off three consecutive straight up losses, but they're 5-1 ATS over their last six games. That stretch includes a tight 28-25 home loss to the 49ers, and I like them to keep it close at San Francisco this week.

The Niners fell in OT against Seattle last week, their first defeat of the season. I would not be surprised to see them come out flat here with no undefeated record to defend, and several of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo's weapons are hurting.

Will San Francisco bounce back with a win? Almost certainly, but I think the Niners will find themselves in a much closer game than they might expect.

Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC West. 49ers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC West. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

10* play on Arizona Cardinals.

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Philadelphia 76ers rank in the bottom half of the league for pace with Cleveland just outside of the bottom five. The Cavs have played four straight unders and they've been held to 97 points in back-to-back games. Philly gave up 127 points in an OT loss at OKC last time out, but note that the under is 7-2 in the 76ers last 9 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

Additionally, the under is 6-2 in Cleveland games with a total lower than 218 points.

8* play on UNDER.

The Baltimore Ravens are unbeaten through their last five games and they've covered the spread in each of their last three. I think they're in for a tough one here though, hosting a Houston Texans team coming off its bye week.

Houston won 26-3 at Jacksonville last time out, and if there's a QB that can go toe-to-toe with Baltimore's Lamar Jackson right now, it's Texans' Deshaun Watson who has 18 TDs vs. five INTs on the season. Houston has all the weapons to put pressure on a Ravens defense that doesn’t attack the QB well, and with plenty of time to prepare and study their opponent, I think taking the points on the visitors is the way to go in this one.

8* play on Houston Texans.

The New Orleans Saints laid an egg at Atlanta last week, and while they're expected to bounce back when facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday I don't think a win will come all that easy for the visitors.

The Saints gained only 52 yards on the ground, and the Bucs boast the best run defense in the NFL. Although the Bucs failed to cover the spread for a fifth straight game last week, note that they at least got the straight up win against Arizona. They lost by seven at New Orleans back in Week 5 and they should be able to keep it closer in front of the home town crowd.

Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston has thrown for 300+ yards in four straight games and New Orleans' defense might be gassed out after putting on a clinic during the team's six-game winning streak that came to an end last time out.

Free pick on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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