Cincinnati vs. Washington,
08/03/2018 19:05 EDT,
Score: 0 - 0
Total: -117/+9 Over
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds on Friday night. Washington ranks fifth in the majors in weighted on base average in the last month. The Cincinnati Reds rank 7th in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. Gio Gonzalez's numbers are much worse this year than a year ago. Gonzalez has a much higher walk rate this year, and he has an xFIP of 4.25 or worse in 7 of his last 8 games. Gonzalez has lost a couple mph off his fastball the last couple years, and that is hurting along with his lack of command.
Anthony DeSclafani starts here for the Reds. To say that DeSclafani has a home run problem would be a major understatement. He is allowing 2.56 home runs per nine innings this year. DeSclafani is allowing an extremely high hard hit rate of 48.4% on the year thus far. Two years ago he was at 30.2%. DeSclafani has only gone 6 innings or more and allowed 2 runs or less two times in his ten starts this year. His ERA is 5.47 and his FIP is 6.07.
Manny Gonzalez is behind the plate here, and he is a solid over umpire. His strikeout/walk ratio is always among the lowest in the majors. The over is 41-16 in his last 57 games behind the dish.
The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph during this one.
The over is 7-0 in the Reds last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The over is 7-1 in DeSclafani's last 8 games.
Take the over.