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New England vs. LA Rams, 02/03/2019 18:30 EDT, Score: 13 - 3

Total: -110/+57 Under

Sportsbook: Bodog

Result: Win

I'm playing on LA/NE UNDER the total. The two games in championship rd averaged 63.5 points. That makes it seem as if both games were very high-scoring. That wasn't the case though; those games were far more defensive in nature than that average indicates. The Saints game produced 49 points, 46 in regulation. Though relatively high-scoring to a "regular" NFL game, that was still enough to stay well below the total. Meanwhile, the Pats combined with the Chiefs for a whopping 68 points. That was a very misleading final though as the score was 14-0 into the second half and 17-7 into the fourth quarter. In other words, both defenses were arguably better than they're being given credit for. The UNDER is 1-0 when the Rams were underdogs and 11-6 when the Pats were favored. With the UNDER also at 4-1 when the Pats were off a game in which they allowed 30 or more points, look for the final combined score to stay beneath the generously high number.

W/ BONUS FIRST HALF PLAY: I’m playing on LA for the first half. While I successfully played against them in the first half of the Saints game, I like the Rams to get off to a quick start in this one. Admittedly, they're a bit fortunate to be here. That doesn't mean that they're not the better team though. Much has changed since Brady and Goff met two years ago, a 26-10 win for the Patriots. Both QBs have gotten older, a good thing for Goff's development but not necessarily for Brady. Goff had Gurley back then. However, he also had Jeff Fisher (tied for most reg. season losses in NFL history) coaching him and nearly everything else has changed, too. The Rams are stronger across the board then they were. The same cannot necessarily be said of the Pats. The Rams averaged 32.4 ppg this season, the Pats averaged 28.6. While not many will make mention of it, I believe that the environment (stadium) helps LA and I like that the Rams are coming off a game in New Orleans as compared to the Patriots coming off a very cold game at Arrowhead. The Aaron Donald factor on defense needs to be mentioned; he can and does change games. It also needs to be noted that the Rams were a perfect 4-0 against the AFC this season, including wins against the Chiefs and Chargers, the two teams that N.E. beat to get here. Look for the Rams to jump off to a quick start Sunday.

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