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New England vs. LA Rams, 02/03/2019 18:30 EDT, Score: 13 - 3

Point Spread: +3/-115 LA Rams

Sportsbook: Bodog

Result: Loss

10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): I view these teams as pretty much even. One can only assume that the early line movement we saw on the Patriots was a byproduct of their vaunted reputation. The Rams, by comparison, are "new kids on the block" in this situation. For what it's worth, however, the Rams have produced a better point differential than the Patriots each of the last two seasons. Neither team had been an underdog all season before the respective Conference Championship Games when the Rams upset the Saints and the Pats did the same to the Chiefs. I only played one of those two games and it was against New England. That doesn't necessarily have a direct correlation to how I'm playing the Super Bowl, but it bears mentioning. I will be taking the points come Super Sunday w/ the Rams.

Obviously, a great deal of attention has been paid to just how the Rams got here. They were an obvious beneficiary of a terrible blown call (should have been pass interference) vs. the Saints. But let's not use that singular play to discredit an entire body of work. They did end up outgaining the Saints 378-290 for the game and outscored 26-10 after the 1st quarter. The win over Dallas in the Divisional Round also was not as close as the final score indicates. The Rams led that game virtually the entire way (by as many as 16) and outgained the Cowboys 459-308. Not only does LA have a better point differential than New England, they have a better yardage differential - both on a per game and per play basis.

Remember what I wrote about two weeks ago regarding the Patriots taking their act out on the road. Their offensive numbers go way down outside of Foxboro. Now obviously things didn't play out the way I had hoped vs. KC, but the Rams also have a better defense than the Chiefs. New England still has a losing record (4-5 SU) away from home. There is an irony here in that the Patriots' Super Bowl run under Belichick & Brady began w/ an upset of the Rams back in 2002. But remember that they have lost three Super Bowls, including last year (Philly special) and should have probably lost the last two. I think experience and reputation is somewhat overrated in this spot and will go w/ what I believe is the better team getting points. 10* LA Rams

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