*10* TOTAL POWER ~ AWESOME 14-5-1 Run w/ 10*s!
Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta,
06/11/2019 19:20 EDT,
Score: 5 - 7
Total: +100/+10 Over
10* Over Pirates/Braves (7:20 ET): The Pirates' ship is sinking fast and it's not like I didn't see this coming. For most of the year, they've had a poor run differential and it's recently only gotten worse. A lot worse, in fact. Last night's 13-7 loss here in Atlanta means the Bucs have now been outscored by 84 runs this season. That's rapidly closing in on the Giants for the worst run diff in the entire National League & it's 4th worst in all of MLB. It's actually a worse run differential than 20-45 Kansas City (-72) & 23-41 Miami (-68). Bottom line is you should expect Pittsburgh to finish last in the NL Central by season's end.
Why is any of this significant? Well, the Pirates' overall record is still 30-35, which isn't horrible, but it's also obviously very misleading given the info above. The gap in the team's actual and expected win total (+6) is the largest in all of MLB. So the bottom line is while the Pirates' record is subpar, it should actually be much worse. If you're a regular follower of mine, then you're probably sick of hearing about this. But I just feel it's very important to illustrate how important the run differential metric truly is.
The Pirates have been giving up runs in bunches recently, including 13 yday. That should continue today w/ Chris Archer on the hill. Archer has an 0-3 TSR on the road this year w/ a 7.98 ERA and 1.568 WHIP. His last time out, which resulted in a 6-1 win over these same Braves, was the 1st time since April 21st that Archer didn't allow at least four runs. The Pirates' bullpen (5.56 ERA) is pretty bad too. The only thing keeping me from a play on Atlanta here is Mike Foltynewicz simply hasn't been the same pitcher he was last season. The team is 1-7 in his 8 starts, largely due to a 5.89 ERA. He has a 7.18 ERA at home. He opposed Archer his last time out and gave up multiple HR's for a second straight start. The Over is 9-1-1 in the Braves' last 11 home games vs. a team w/ a losing record (includes last night). 10* Over Pirates/Braves