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Colorado vs. Arizona,
07/06/2019 22:10 EDT,
Score: 2 - 4
Total: -105/+8 Under
8* Under Rockies/D'backs (10:10 ET): I had my finger on the pulse of this matchup yesterday, taking Arizona in what ended up being an 8-0 shutout. It was a big revenge spot for the D'backs as they'd previously been swept here at Chase Field by the Rockies last month. But as I was quick to point out in yday's analysis, the D'backs are a better team than they're being given credit for. That's seemingly confirmed by a YTD run differential of +49, which is actually 4th best overall in the NL. Meanwhile, it remains difficult to trust the Rockies outside of Coors Field for a number of reasons. The most obvious is the drastic decline in offense they experience, which is why I'll be going w/ the Under here.
I'll take this right from yday's analysis - "Of course, the Rockies home vs. road splits have been well-defined throughout the franchise's quarter-century existence. We know the offense is going to decline when they leave Coors Field. But the drop they are experiencing this season is as dramatic as ever. While they continue to lead all of baseball in runs scored at home (6.9 per game!), that average drops all the way to 4.4 rpg on the road." They were obviously shutout Friday, so that runs per game average dropped and they're now down to 4.3.
While Colorado's home vs. road splits are pretty dramatic, a team playing worse on the road isn't that all uncommon. Arizona's splits are thus a little more head-scratching as they average only 4.5 rpg at home compared to 5.6 on the road. I don't see them scoring as many runs here as they did last night as Rockies starter Jon Gray has been solid of late w/ a 1.45 ERA his L3 starts. Gray is 6-1 his L8 starts and has a 2.38 ERA in a pair of outings vs. Arizona this season. I do expect Colorado's offense to struggle again, however. D'backs starter Robbie Ray has a very good strikeout rate (129 K's in 98 2/3 IP) and turned in a quality start vs. the Rockies the last time they came calling to Chase Field. 8* Under Rockies/D'backs