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Minnesota vs. Milwaukee, 08/14/2019 14:10 EDT, Score: 5 - 6

Total: -108/+9½ Under

Sportsbook: PinnacleSports

Result: Loss

8* Under Twins/Brewers (2:10 ET): The Twins are averaging 6.1 runs per game on the road this season. That always felt like an unsustainable number to me, but the Yankees actually average more (6.5 rpg). Still, even though we're halfway through August, I expect that number to come down for Minnesota. On that note, the Twins have lost all of an 11.5 game advantage over the Indians in the American League Central. They had actually fallen out of first place (for the 1st time since late April) before winning yday 7-5 here in Milwaukee. This is a NL park and thus I expect less scoring today. Take the Under.

Milwaukee is another team seemingly headed in the wrong direction. They are third in the NL Central, but still very much alive in both the division and Wild Card race. However, run differential says they are pretty lucky to be in this position as they've been outscored by 22 runs over the course of the season. Last night was a blown save opportunity for the Brew Crew, the 5th this season from alleged closer Josh Hader, who has now given up eight home runs in the 8th inning or later. That's the most by any pitcher since 1961! Much of the scoring in last night's game was done in the later innings as the Brewers scored four runs to take the lead in the bottom of the seventh only to then allow three in the top of the eighth.

Today's starting pitching matchup featured a change on the Milwaukee side as they'll now go w/ Gio Gonzalez instead of Drew Pomeranz. That's a net positive as Gonzalez has a 3.20 ERA in 10 starts this year and a 0.831 WHIP in the four at home. He's allowed no more than 3 ER in 9 of the 10. Minnesota's Kyle Gibson was having a breakout season in the 1st half before "cooling off" the last month or so. But he still can claim a 11-5 team start record. The Under is 5-2-1 the last eight times Gibson has started on 5+ days rest. Look for him to bounce back after a rough outing against Cleveland over the weekend. 8* Under Twins/Brewers

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