Miami vs. Washington,
09/01/2019 13:35 EDT,
Score: 3 - 9
Point Spread: -1½/-118 Washington
*4 Star Play on Nationals -1.5* Patrick Corbin has been fantastic at home this year. Corbin has a 1.83 ERA at home on the year. Opponents are hitting just .196 and have a wOBA of .232 against him at Nationals Park this year.
Corbin has faced the Marlins 3 times this year. He has pitched 23 innings and allowed only 2 runs. He has struck out 21 batters and has only walked two. This Marlins lineup is a weak one, and Corbin has dominated them.
The Nationals bullpen is bad, but they are better than the Marlins bullpen. The Nationals rank 20th in xFIP in the last 30 days as a bullpen. The Marlins rank dead last in the majors.
Caleb Smith started the season out strong, but a closer look at what he has done lately shows how much he has been struggling. In his first 9 starts of the season, Smith had a 2.38 ERA and a FIP of 3.05. In his 13 starts since, Smith has a 5.32 ERA and a 6.08 FIP.
The Nationals are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They should be able to take advantage of Smith in his current form, and the Marlins bullpen is a mess.
I like the Nationals on the run line with Corbin on the hill here.
Take Washington -1.5.