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NFL comp

NFL comp

Green Bay vs. LA Chargers, 11/03/2019 16:25 EDT, Score: 11 - 26

Point Spread: +4/-110 LA Chargers

Sportsbook: Bodog

Result: Win

There is no real home field advantage for the LA Chargers playing here , in Dignity Health Sports Park and there will probably be more Packers fans than Chargers fans here. However, my power rankings suggest we have value in what could best be described as a neutral field environment.The Packers/Chargers are tied for the NFL lead with seven touchdown receptions by running backs and are more evenly matched than most might think.

Last week the Chargers beat the Bears, but the organization has had enough of offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt play calling and instead will have their QB coach Shane Steichen call plays this week a guy I think has been undervalued by the Chargers. This week look for QB Philip Rivers who is s second in the league with 202 completions, fourth with 305attempts, third with 2,315 yards and 10th with 66.2 percent accuracy to have a decent Sunday, vs Aaron Rodgers and company.Note: In three career starts against Green Bay, he’s averaged 398 passing yards.

I know its hard to bet against the Packers because of recency biases, but Im not going to give a great deal of attention to those numbers today and instead will base my opinion on the mathematics that suggest we have value taking points.

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - struggling rushing team ( 3.5 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.5 or moreYPR) after 8+ games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 26-6 L/36 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover

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