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Game of the Month NFL 10*

Game of the Month NFL 10*

New England vs. Philadelphia, 11/17/2019 16:25 EDT, Score: 17 - 10

Point Spread: +4/-115 Philadelphia

Sportsbook: Bodog

Result: Loss

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #470 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Both teams enter this week off a bye week last week. First off I am going to talk about the always good but always over-hyped Patriots. While it is true that New England blew out Pittsburgh in Week 1 of this season lets talk about what has happened since then. The Patriots have played 8 games since then and 6 of them were wins by 14 points or more. The other two were games the Pats lost ATS. More on the latter in the moment but lets first talk about all those "tough" teams that New England faced in those 6 big wins. Here is their current record of each of the teams they faced week by week: 2-7, 2-7, 1-8, 2-8, 1-8, 3-6. Noticing a pattern here? The Pats took care of business a lot but they faced trash a lot! So how about those other two games? The Patriots barely got by the Bills and did NOT cover and then two weeks ago New England got absolutely dominated by the Ravens. Notice this pattern? When Mr Brady and Mr Belichick have to step up and face a formidable opponent things suddenly change. The Eagles beat a MUCH tougher Patriots team to win the Super Bowl in Feb of 2018 and so this Pats team is much more susceptible to what the Eagles bring to the table here and this game is NOT at a neutral site. The Philadelphia schedule has been much tougher than the Patriots schedule has been. The Eagles have faced 5 tough teams in their last 6 games and 4 of those teams have a combined record of 26-12 on the season! The Eagles run defense ranks among the best in the NFL and the Patriots, despite facing a mostly cupcake schedule, rank in the bottom 3rd of the NFL for running the ball. That said, when a team struggles to run the ball their offense of course becomes more predictable and you know The Linc is going to be rocking for this game and I expect the Philly defense to bring a huge game here. This is just the 2nd home game the Eagles have had in the past 6 weeks! Look for the Patriots to drop to 0-3 ATS on the season when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning record. The Eagles are 3-1 SU at home this season and many will be looking for the Pats to bounce back here after that ugly loss at Baltimore two weeks ago. However, Philadelphia is off B2B wins and has moved back into a first-place tie in the NFC East so they are "feeling it" again and check out the following stat. The Eagles are 8-0 ATS when off a SU win and facing a non-divisional foe with a winning percentage of .667 or greater that is off a SU/ATS loss. That PERFECT system fits here. Also, under head coach Doug Pederson, the Eagles are 10-3 ATS when they enter a game with a winning record on the season and they are an underdog against a non-divisional foe. Also, under Pederson, the Eagles are 9-3 ATS when they enter a game off B2B SU/ATS wins. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Philly is 10-2 ATS when off a SU/ATS win and facing a team that is off an outright upset loss as a favorite. New England, in regular season games, is now on an 0-5 ATS streak when they are on the road and facing a team that has a .500 record or better. The Eagles should win this outright but I am happy to grab the points as added insurance here. 10* PHILADELPHIA


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