Schule's 10* MLB Total Recall TERMINATOR - *EARLY START*
San Diego vs. Miami,
08/02/2015 13:10 EDT,
Score: 2 - 5
Total: -120/+6 Over
This is a 10* play on SD@MIA to go OVER the total.
The Marlins will be a big favorite at home this afternoon in the series finale versus San Diego, despite the fact that they've lost four straight, seven of their last eight and five in a row against the Padres. Three of their last four games have gone over the total, and I think the bookmakers are putting way to much stock in Jose Fernandez and his perfect 14-0 career home record.
Fernandez (4-0, 2.53 ERA) allowed one run on four hits and four walks over six innings in a 4-1 win over Washington his last time out. At this point, we all know the kid is good at home, but he's not going to remain undefeated in Miami forever. If there's one thing about his splits that are cause for concern, it's his record in day games. He's only had one start in the afternoon this season, and it was hit debut at home against the Giants. He allowed three runs on seven hits over six innings, and needed to hit a home run to power himself to a 5-4 win.
The Padres hand the ball to James Shields, who hasn't been sharp lately. Shields (8-4, 3.77 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits over seven innings in a loss to the Mets his last time out. The Padres have lost eight of his last 10 starts, and he's been far better at home than on the road. He's also better at night, with a record of 3-2 with a 4.40 ERA in eight starts in the afternoon.
These teams have pushed the total over in seven of the last 10 meetings at Marlins Park.