Stephen Nover's 10-Dime Total of the Week
San Francisco vs. Atlanta,
08/03/2015 19:10 EDT,
Score: 8 - 9
Total: +107/+8 Over
I'm expecting double-digit runs in a pitching matchup of Matt Cain versus Mike Foltynewicz in a hot, humid muggy evening in Atlanta.
The Braves finally got their offense rolling on Sunday. It should stay picked up with Freddy Freeman back in the lineup.
Cain is making his sixth start of the season since missing April, May and June because of a flexor tendon strain in his right pitching arm. Cain isn't the pitcher he once was. Injuries and more than 1,800 career innings have taken their toll.
Cain is now reduced to being effective only in extreme pitcher's parks. Luckily for him, four of his five starts have come in the three best pitcher's parks in the majors - Petco Park, AT&T Park and Marlins Park.
Cain has pitched in only one hitter's park this season - Chase Field in Arizona - and he was reached for four earned runs on eight hits in five innings. Turner Field in Atlanta isn't as good for hitters as Chase Field, but it's far better than Petco, AT&T and Marlins Park for offense. Playing there in August when the humidity is at its highest also is good for hitters.
Rather than fade Cain, I believe over the total is the best way to go in this matchup because I don't trust Foltynewicz and San Francisco's offense has been hot.
The Giants were inexplicably held to two runs by the Rangers on Sunday. Prior to that, however, they had been averaging 5.8 runs while batting .311 during their past 17 games. Buster Posey is the Giants' key hitter and he loves to hit at Turner Field where he's batting .486 during the past four years.
Foltynewicz has a 4.97 ERA in 10 starts this season. If you count his bullpen work, his ERA is above 5.00. He's surrendered 10 homers in 58 innings. The league figured out the right-hander during his second go around. The Giants faced him in late May.
The Braves had sent Foltynewicz to the minors, but just brought him up again after Alex Wood was traded. The Giants have gone over the total 69 percent of the time during their last 51 road contests when going against a right-handed starter.